PropertyShark Staff Key Takeaways:
- New apartment deliveries down 8% Y-O-Y nationally;
- New NYC apartment deliveries down 33% Y-O-Y;
- Bushwick home to 8% of new apartment supply in NYC;
2019 marks the second year in a row in which apartment construction declines in New York metro. After 2018 saw the number of projected new apartments fall from 20,682 to 19,948, construction is expected to drop by a further 6,350 units this year, down to 13,418.
After years of sustained development momentum, rising construction costs and a tight labor supply are making their mark on the NYC. The staggering 33% decline comes in stark contrast with the 8% dip our colleagues at RENTCafe highlighted in their 2019 Apartment Construction Report at a national level.
On a local level, Brooklyn outshines the rest of NYC
When it comes to location, Millennial renter hub Bushwick leads the pack. The Brooklyn neighborhood is expected to add 1,103 units this year, twice more than Jamaica’s 553. Coming in third after Jamaica, Astoria is projected to complete a total of 508 new apartments this year.
Long Island City is notably missing from the ranking, even though it has around 3,000 apartments with estimated completion dates set for this year. However, RENTCafe projections show these developments won’t be completed in 2019, and will most likely continue into 2020. Other New York neighborhoods are in a similar situation—Murray Hill, Lincoln Square, and Williamsburg each have around 800-900 units close to completion that will roll into 2020.
The construction downturn is visible at a national level
Apartment delivery projections have been tapering off for the past two years on a national level. 2017 and the 331,765 new units completed that year mark a bright spot in a decade of accelerated growth that started winding down in 2018. 326,240 and 299,442 apartments were delivered in 2018 and 2019, respectively, with the decline evolving from 2% in 2018 to a more substantial 8% in 2019.
Thirteen of the largest metro areas are seeing declines in new apartments this year. Dallas-Fort Worth, which takes first place in the Top 20 US Metros by Projected New Apartments, is expected to add 22,196 units this year, down from 24,960 in 2018.
Miami, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Washington, Houston, Denver, Charlotte, Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Portland, and Chicago apartments will be delivered in less numbers than last year as well, while Seattle, Austin, Phoenix, and Orlando are among the few metros which are seeing upticks in new apartment completions. Tampa and San Jose, meanwhile, are new to the top 20 this year.
For more details and methodology, check out the full RENTCafe report.
