Eliza Theiss Key Takeaways:
- Staten Island’s Dongan Hills claimed the largest drop in sales, losing 86% of its transactional activity compared to Q1 2022.
- Staten Island was also home to five of the 10 neighborhoods where sales dropped at the sharpest rates, while Queens claimed four of the 10 highest increases.
- Manhattan sales increased in only two neighborhoods (East Harlem and the Civic Center area) and dropped in 37 others.
- Residential sales slowed the least in the Bronx, declining only 25% Y-o-Y.
- Brooklyn was home to the highest increase in sales with residential deals in the Prospect-Lefferts Gardens area doubling for a 100% upsurge.
- Citywide condo sales slowed 46% Y-o-Y, while single family deals were down 38% and co-op purchases dropped 35%.
- 193 NYC neighborhoods posted negative sales growth rates, with positive gains recorded in only 22 areas.
Covering New York City price trends for years, PropertyShark has seen sales trend up and down throughout multiple cycles. Accordingly, with our latest report on the city’s priciest neighborhoods finding that sales dropped significantly in 46 of the 50 most expensive neighborhoods, we were curious to see how the city’s other 200 neighborhoods had fared during the last year.
To discover the true extent of the NYC real estate market’s slowdown during the last year, we analyzed sales data for all NYC neighborhoods that closed at least five sales per quarter since January 2022.
Of the 225 neighborhoods that met those conditions, a whopping 193 neighborhoods logged clear drops in sales, and only 22 experienced increases in transactional activity.
Staten Island, Queens & Brooklyn Home to Sharpest Drops in Neighborhood Sales
Following the buying frenzy of the pandemic, a market cooldown was to be expected. However, with the ongoing economic uncertainty and the dynamic evolution of federal interest rates, many NYC buyers and sellers have stepped to the sidelines, further slowing the market. In fact, the latest data shows that 40% fewer sales were closed during Q1 2023 than in Q1 2022.
So, which NYC neighborhoods logged the sharpest drops in sales in the past year?
#1 Dongan Hills, Staten Island
The #1 sharpest drop was logged in Staten Island’s Dongan Hills neighborhood, where sales fell 85.7% year-over-year (Y-o-Y), going from 35 deals in Q1 2022 to just five in Q1 2023. In fact, Staten Island claimed five of the 10 sharpest drops in neighborhood-level sales in the entirety of NYC: Dongan Hills was joined by the neighborhoods of Grymes Hill-Silver Lake, St. George, Tottenville and Grasmere.
#2 Homecrest, Brooklyn
Homecrest claimed the second-sharpest drop in sales in the city at -82.1% Y-o-Y, going from 95 deals in Q1 2022 to just 17 at the start of this year. Not only that, but the neighborhood’s median sale price also contracted $60,000 Y-o-Y, closing Q1 2023 at $405,000.
#3 Ditmars-Steinway, Queens
The second-most expensive neighborhood in Queens and one of the city’s 50 priciest, Ditmars-Steinway logged the third-sharpest decrease in sales at -75.6% Y-o-Y. However, Ditmars was not the only Queens neighborhood to rank among those where sales slowed down at an especially fast pace. It was also joined by Auburndale and Fresh Meadows, two other neighborhoods that ranked among the city’s most expensive.
#4 Cobble Hill, Brooklyn
Cobble Hill was another Brooklyn neighborhood among those where transactional activity fell by the highest margins. Specifically, Cobble Hill sales contracted 71.9% Y-o-Y, going from 32 deals in the first three months of 2022 to just nine in the corresponding period this year. At the same time, the neighborhood’s median sale price was also in freefall, slashed by a staggering $1.71 million to land at just $900,000.
#5 Auburndale, Queens
The 48th-most expensive neighborhood in NYC, Auburndale underwent a 70.7% contraction in sales, closing only 12 deals in the first quarter of 2023. For comparison, it logged 41 deals in Q1 2022.
#6 Grymes Hill-Silver Lake, Staten Island
One of five Staten Island neighborhoods to post one the city’s 10 steepest drops in sales, Grymes Hill-Silver Lake underwent a 70.6% contraction in sales. In the case of this Staten Island neighborhood, though, that meant a decrease from 17 sales to just five. That said, this also marked the neighborhood’s third consecutive quarter of single-digit sales.
#7 St. George, Staten Island
Sales in St. George contracted 70% Y-o-Y to close only six deals in Q1 2023 — just barely enough to calculate accurate neighborhood metrics. Additionally, its median sale price was lower than the borough’s: Namely, St. George posted a $518,000 median sale price — $107,000 less than the borough’s $625,000 median.
#8 Tottenville, Staten Island
Tottenville residential sales dropped 69.1% Y-o-Y, going from 55 deals in the first quarter of 2022 to just 17 in the first quarter of 2023. And, although transactional activity in the neighborhood fluctuated up and down throughout the last four quarters, Q1 2023 was the weakest yet by far.
#9 Grasmere, Staten Island
With a median sale price of $960,000, Grasmere was easily the most expensive Staten Island neighborhood among those to top citywide sale slowdowns. Here, sales dropped 68.8% Y-o-Y, the same as in Tottenville. However, in this case, that meant a drop from 16 sales in Q1 2022 to just five in Q1 2023.
#10 Fresh Meadows, Queens
One of Queens’ most expensive neighborhoods at $890,000, Fresh Meadows saw its sales fall 67.3% Y-o-Y. Notably, residential sales have become scarcer each quarter in this neighborhood, dropping from 52 deals in Q1 2022 to 42 sales in Q2 2022. They were followed by 40 and 21 sales in Q3 and Q4, respectively, and just 17 in the first three months of 2023.
Staten Island Downturn Sharpest in NYC, While Condo Sales Fall at Least 40% in Every Borough, Except the Bronx
Not only did Staten Island supply five of the 10 largest drops in NYC neighborhood sales, but 40 of its 43 neighborhoods included in this report also registered double-digit year-over-year contractions in residential sales. In fact, in 18 Staten Island neighborhoods, sales were least halved.
Staten Island also logged the sharpest drop in sales at the borough level, coming in 46% below Q1 2022 figures with only 765 closed deals in the first three months of 2023. From an asset type perspective, single family home sales were cut by 44%, condos declined 46% and deals involving two-family residences were down 49% Y-o-Y.
In Queens, on the other hand, the hardest hit asset class was condos, with sales dropping 41% Y-o-Y in Q1 2023. Here, sales of single family homes decreased 34%, while co-ops proved to be the most resilient to cooling market dynamics as purchases slowed by just 26% Y-o-Y.
At the neighborhood level, 65 Queens areas met the five-sale minimum threshold to be included in this report. Of those, 52 experienced sales activity cooldowns, including 11 where sales were at least 50% lower year-over-year.
Conversely, of the 22 NYC neighborhoods where sales picked up, 10 were from Queens. Other Queens neighborhoods where sales increased included Hollis (72.7%), East Flushing (70.6%), Long Island City (60%) and the Astoria Heights-Upper Ditmars (57.1%) area. Notably, for the Astoria Heights-Upper Ditmars area, that increase equated to a change from seven deals to 11.
Meanwhile, Brooklyn had only four neighborhoods with sales on the rise, but those included the #1 sharpest increase in sales among all NYC neighborhoods with the Prospect-Lefferts Gardens area. Here, sales doubled, going from 10 deals to 20 Y-o-Y. At the same time, in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park South, sales rose 56.3% Y-o-Y, while Manhattan Beach went up 40%. That said, in the case of Manhattan Beach, that translated to an increase of just two sales — from five deals in Q1 2022 to seven in Q1 2023.
Overall, 43 Brooklyn neighborhoods had double-digit sales decreases, including 10 neighborhoods with drops of at least 50%. Among those were both mainstays of the city’s 50 most expensive neighborhoods — like Downtown Brooklyn (-62.6%) and DUMBO (-62.5%) — as well as less-pricey areas, like Bensonhurst (-51.6%) and Gerritsen Beach (-57.1%).
In Brooklyn’s case, condo sales slowed the most, dropping 51% Y-o-Y, while sales of co-ops and single family homes fell 38% each. It was a similar story in Manhattan, where deals involving condos were nearly halved, dropping 46% Y-o-Y. They were joined by a 46% decrease in single family home sales, while co-ops were slightly less affected as sales decreased 40%.
It’s worth noting here that Manhattan had the smallest number of neighborhoods with sales on the rise in Q1 2023,with East Harlem sales up 10% Y-o-Y, and the Civic Center area up 66.7% Y-o-Y. Conversely, 37 other Manhattan neighborhoods recorded definite sales drops, 13 of which were down at least 50%.
Specifically, the borough’s five neighborhoods with the sharpest sales decreases included Turtle Bay (-58.4%) and four regulars of the city’s 50 most expensive neighborhoods: Roosevelt Island (-58.3%), Greenwich Village (-58.8%), Hudson Yards (-62.5%) and TriBeCa (-66.1%).
Finally, in the Bronx, sales drops were less sharp than they were in the other four boroughs: Of the 28 neighborhoods included in this report, three logged sales gains — Unionport (+40%), Bedford Park (+30%) and Riverdale (+21.1%) — while transactional activity trended down in 21 others. Of these, only four saw sales fall by 50% or more: Williamsbridge (-50%), Woodstock (-50%), Spuyten Duyvil (-55.4%) and Fordham (-64.7%). The Bronx was also the borough where condo sales fared best, decreasing a mere 3%. At the same time, single family and co-op sales in the Bronx both dropped 29% Y-o-Y.
For more information, explore sales data for 225 New York City neighborhoods in the interactive table below:
Methodology
In order to identify the neighborhoods that underwent the sharpest decreases in sales, we aggregated all residential property sales recorded in ACRIS and with the Richmond County Clerk between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023, grouping sales data by quarters. Residential asset types included were single and two-family homes; condos; and co-ops. Package deals were excluded.
Only neighborhoods that recorded at least five sales between January 1 and March 31, 2023, were included. Year-over-year changes in the number of sales were calculated only for neighborhoods that also recorded a minimum of five sales between January 1 and March 31, 2022.
Median sale prices were calculated according to the same criteria as the number of sales. Median sale prices were rounded to the nearest $1,000.
